# 2026 Senate Races Hub All 35 Senate contests in the 2026 cycle: 33 regular Class 2 seats plus two specials (Florida replacing Rubio, Ohio replacing Vance). Republicans defend 22 seats (20 regular + 2 specials); Democrats defend 13. **Current Senate composition**: 53 R, 47 D (incl. 2 independents who caucus D). **Democratic gain needed for 50-50 / VP tiebreak**: 3 seats (assumes D holds all 13 of their own seats). **Democratic gain needed for 51**: 4 seats. **Cook's current read** (Oct 6, 2026): the Democratic majority is "squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net." Seven Toss Ups — six of them Republican-held. (Sept 23: net gain of 1–5 seats, "a true coin flip.") ## Status snapshot - **All 35 race files built** as of 2026-04-23 — complete Senate cycle coverage. Regular races (33): [[AK-Sen-2026]], [[AL-Sen-2026]], [[AR-Sen-2026]], [[CO-Sen-2026]], [[DE-Sen-2026]], [[GA-Sen-2026]], [[IA-Sen-2026]], [[ID-Sen-2026]], [[IL-Sen-2026]], [[KS-Sen-2026]], [[KY-Sen-2026]], [[LA-Sen-2026]], [[MA-Sen-2026]], [[ME-Sen-2026]], [[MI-Sen-2026]], [[MN-Sen-2026]], [[MS-Sen-2026]], [[MT-Sen-2026]], [[NC-Sen-2026]], [[NE-Sen-2026]], [[NH-Sen-2026]], [[NJ-Sen-2026]], [[NM-Sen-2026]], [[OK-Sen-2026]], [[OR-Sen-2026]], [[RI-Sen-2026]], [[SC-Sen-2026]], [[SD-Sen-2026]], [[TN-Sen-2026]], [[TX-Sen-2026]], [[VA-Sen-2026]], [[WV-Sen-2026]], [[WY-Sen-2026]]. Specials (2): [[FL-Sen-2026-Special]], [[OH-Sen-2026-Special]]. - **People/ incumbent coverage**: all retiring / running-again incumbents have People/ entries. - **Challenger profiles (2026-06-14)**: full profiles built for the named challengers/nominees — MI ([[Abdul El-Sayed]] / [[Mallory McMorrow]] / [[Haley Stevens]] / [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]]), MN ([[Angie Craig]] / [[Peggy Flanagan]] / [[Royce White]]), IA ([[Ashley Hinson]]), AL ([[Barry Moore]] / [[Steve Marshall]]), NH ([[Chris Pappas]] / [[John E. Sununu]]), IL ([[Juliana Stratton]]), CO ([[Julie Gonzales]]), OK ([[Kevin Hern]] / [[Alan Armstrong]]), MT ([[Kurt Alme]]), SC ([[Mark Lynch]]), NC ([[Roy Cooper]]). Remaining: post-August primary winners (MI Aug 4 / MN Aug 11) and the OK + AL June 16 outcomes. ## By competitiveness (Cook ratings as of 2026-10-06) > [!info] Re-bucketed 2026-10-09 against Cook's Oct 6 update > Cook (Jessica Taylor, Oct 6): **Kansas** Lean R → Toss Up, **New Hampshire** Toss Up → Lean D, **North Carolina** Lean D → Likely D. Cook now calls the majority "squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net." > [!info] Re-bucketed 2026-09-28 against Cook's Sept 23 print ratings > Cook's Sept 23 update called control of the chamber "a true coin flip": its range is a Democratic net gain of **one to five seats**, and Democrats need **four**. Moves that day: **Georgia** Lean → Likely D, **Kansas** Likely → Lean R, **South Carolina** Solid → Likely R. This re-sort also caught several buckets that had drifted from Cook (TX, IA, AK, ME to Toss Up; CO, IL to Solid D; KY, LA to Solid R). Every matchup below is final — the primary calendar closed Sept 15. ### Toss Up (7 — one Democratic-held, six Republican-held) - **[[KS-Sen-2026]]** — Roger Marshall (R) vs. [[Adam Hamilton]] (D), the Methodist megachurch pastor who won the Aug 4 primary. **Moved Likely → Lean R Sept 23, Lean R → Toss Up Oct 6.** - **[[MI-Sen-2026]]** — Open (D, Peters retiring). [[Abdul El-Sayed]] (D) vs. [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] (R). Debates Oct 8 (WOOD TV8) and Oct 21 (WXYZ). - **[[AK-Sen-2026]]** — [[Dan Sullivan]] (R) vs. [[Mary Peltola]] (D), ranked-choice general; a second, unrelated Dan Sullivan is on the ballot, and Ballot Measure 2 would repeal RCV. - **[[IA-Sen-2026]]** — Open (R, Ernst retiring). [[Ashley Hinson]] (R) vs. [[Josh Turek]] (D). - **[[ME-Sen-2026]]** — [[Susan Collins]] (R) vs. [[Troy Jackson]] (D), who replaced [[Graham Platner]] at a July 25 convention. Four debates: Oct 6, 8, 13, 15. - **[[OH-Sen-2026-Special]]** — [[Jon Husted]] (R, appointed) vs. [[Sherrod Brown]] (D). - **[[TX-Sen-2026]]** — Open (R; Cornyn lost the runoff). [[Ken Paxton]] (R) vs. [[James Talarico]] (D). Talarico leads every September public poll (Texas Tribune); $160M+ in GOP spending for Paxton; Paxton has accepted no debates. ### Lean Democratic (1 — Democratic-held) - **[[NH-Sen-2026]]** — Open (D, Shaheen retiring). [[Chris Pappas]] (D, 65%) vs. [[John E. Sununu]] (R, 68.5%). The marquee open seat of the cycle. **Moved Toss Up → Lean D Oct 6.** ### Likely Democratic (3) - **[[NC-Sen-2026]]** — Open (R, Tillis retiring). [[Roy Cooper]] (D) vs. [[Michael Whatley]] (R). No debate agreed as of mid-September. **Moved Lean → Likely D Oct 6.** - **[[GA-Sen-2026]]** — Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Rep. [[Mike Collins]] (R, won June 16 runoff). **Moved Lean → Likely D Sept 23.** Debate Oct 8, Assembly Atlanta. - **[[MN-Sen-2026]]** — Open (D, Smith retiring). [[Peggy Flanagan]] (DFL) vs. [[Michele Tafoya]] (R). ### Solid Democratic (9) - **[[CO-Sen-2026]]** — Hickenlooper (D) beat Julie Gonzales 57–43 on June 30; vs. Mark Baisley (R). Cook: Solid D. - **[[DE-Sen-2026]]** — Coons (D, 78% in the Sept 15 primary) vs. [[Michael Katz]] (R). - **[[IL-Sen-2026]]** — Open (D, Durbin retiring). [[Juliana Stratton]] (D) vs. Don Tracy (R). Cook: Solid D. - **[[MA-Sen-2026]]** — Markey beat Moulton 64.9–35.1 (Sept 1); vs. [[John Deaton]] (R). - **[[NJ-Sen-2026]]** — Booker (D) vs. [[Justin Murphy]] (R). Debate Oct 8, Rider University. - **[[NM-Sen-2026]]** — Luján (D) vs. [[Larry Marker]] (R, write-in nominee). - **[[OR-Sen-2026]]** — Merkley (D) vs. [[David Brock Smith]] (R). - **[[RI-Sen-2026]]** — [[Jack Reed]] (D, 76.8% Sept 9) vs. [[Raymond McKay]] (R). - **[[VA-Sen-2026]]** — Warner (D), fourth-term bid. ### Lean Republican (0) - None. Kansas, the only race here, moved to Toss Up on Oct 6. ### Likely Republican (2) - **[[NE-Sen-2026]]** — Ricketts (R) vs. independent [[Dan Osborn]]; Democrats fielded no nominee. - **[[SC-Sen-2026]]** — [[Darline Graham]] (R), appointed after [[Lindsey Graham]] died in July and nominated in the August runoff over [[Ralph Norman]]. **Moved Solid → Likely R Sept 23.** ### Solid Republican (13) - **[[AL-Sen-2026]]** — Open. [[Barry Moore]] (R) vs. [[Everett Wess]] (D). - **[[AR-Sen-2026]]** — Cotton (R) vs. Martha Shoffner (D). - **[[FL-Sen-2026-Special]]** — Moody (R, appointed) vs. [[Angie Nixon]] (D). **Moody has declined to debate** (Sept 22). - **[[ID-Sen-2026]]** — Risch (R) vs. independent [[Todd Achilles]]; no Democrat on the ballot. - **[[KY-Sen-2026]]** — Open (McConnell retiring). [[Andy Barr]] (R) vs. [[Charles Booker]] (D). Cook: Solid R. - **[[LA-Sen-2026]]** — Open in effect: Cassidy lost renomination. [[Julia Letlow]] (R, 56.9% June 27 runoff) vs. [[Jamie Davis]] (D). Cook: Solid R. - **[[MS-Sen-2026]]** — Hyde-Smith (R) vs. Scott Colom (D). - **[[MT-Sen-2026]]** — Open. [[Kurt Alme]] (R) vs. [[Alani Bankhead]] (D) vs. independent [[Seth Bodnar]]. - **[[OK-Sen-2026]]** — [[Kevin Hern]] (R) vs. [[N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas]] (D). - **[[SD-Sen-2026]]** — Rounds (R) vs. [[Julian Beaudion]] (D) vs. independent [[Brian Bengs]]. - **[[TN-Sen-2026]]** — Hagerty (R) vs. Marquita Bradshaw (D). - **[[WV-Sen-2026]]** — Capito (R) vs. Rachel Anderson (D). - **[[WY-Sen-2026]]** — Open. [[Harriet Hageman]] (R, 64.9%) vs. James Byrd (D). ## Retirements / open seats at a glance **Democratic**: Illinois (Durbin), Michigan (Peters), Minnesota (Smith), New Hampshire (Shaheen). **Republican**: North Carolina (Tillis), Wyoming (Lummis), Montana (Daines), Iowa (Ernst), Kentucky (McConnell), Alabama (Tuberville → gov), Oklahoma (Mullin → DHS). **Incumbents who lost renomination:** Texas (Cornyn), Louisiana (Cassidy). **Seat reset by death:** South Carolina (Lindsey Graham, July 2026). ## Build status **All 35 Senate race files complete** as of 2026-04-23. Full Senate cycle coverage established. ### Next work (beyond race files) 1. **House race files** — ~40-60 competitive districts (see [[MIDTERM_OPS_PLAN]]) 2. **Governor race files** — 36 gubernatorial races; overlap with Senate narratives (AL/Tuberville, NH/Sununu bench, TX runoffs, **RI/Foulkes-McKee**) 3. **Challenger People/ stubs** — build after primary resolution: - Post-May 19 (KY, AL, WV primaries): Barr/Cameron/Morris winner, Barry Moore or Marshall, Willis (if viable) - Post-May 26 (TX runoff): Cornyn or Paxton - Post-June 2 (super primary): IA/MT/NM/SD/NJ nominees - Post-June 9 (ME, SC): Platner or Mills, Lynch (if he unseats Graham) - Post-August (MI, MN, AK, FL special, VA, KS): D primary winners 4. **Rating-shift monitoring** — update race files as Cook/Sabato/Split Ticket ratings move 5. **Money tracking** — Q2 FEC filings drop July 15; Q3 filings October 15. Race-file Money sections to be refreshed. ## Related - [[index]] - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[MIDTERM_OPS_PLAN]] — operational plan