# 2026 Key State Races Hub Sub-hub of the [[2026 Midterms Hub]] covering consequential state-level races below governor: attorneys general, state supreme courts, secretaries of state, and state legislative chambers in play. These down-ballot contests determine who enforces abortion bans, who draws district maps, who certifies elections, and who controls state policy — making them at least as important as the federal races tracked in [[2026 Senate Races Hub]] and [[2026 House Races Hub]]. The through-line: post-[[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]], the collapse of federal rights floors has shifted enormous power to state governments. [[Dark Money]] networks led by [[Leonard Leo]], the [[Koch Network]], and [[State Policy Network]] affiliates are pouring unprecedented sums into these races. Democratic counterparts like DAGA and the DLCC are matching spending in key states. The stakes for [[Gerrymandering]], [[Reproductive Rights Movement]], [[Voter Suppression]], and [[Election Denialism]] are highest at this level. --- ## State Attorneys General Thirty AG seats are on the November 3 ballot. AGs have become frontline actors in national policy — filing lawsuits against (or defending) federal actions, enforcing or refusing to enforce abortion restrictions, and shaping consumer-protection and tech-regulation agendas. Record outside spending (both RAGA and DAGA reported ~$28–29M raised by early 2026) underscores the stakes. ### Tier 1 — Toss-Up Battlegrounds These four are the crown jewels: all are swing states with Democratic incumbents defending in states Trump carried in 2024. **Arizona** — [[Kris Mayes]] (D, incumbent, unopposed in her primary) **vs. state Senate President Warren Petersen (R)**, who won the July 21, 2026 Republican primary over former Tucson councilman Rodney Glassman by roughly 56–43. Mayes won in 2022 by just 280 votes (0.01%); she prosecuted the 2020 [[Election Denialism]] fake-electors case and joined multistate coalitions challenging Trump-era federal actions. Petersen co-chaired the Arizona Senate's oversight of the Cyber Ninjas "audit" of Maricopa County and has claimed without evidence that the 2020 results were fraudulent; Glassman, by contrast, acknowledged Biden won. Stakes: abortion enforcement (Arizona's 15-week ban is current law after Mayes declined to enforce the 1864 near-total ban), the election-fraud prosecution pipeline, antitrust. **Michigan** — Open seat (incumbent [[Dana Nessel]], D, is term-limited). **Washtenaw County prosecutor Eli Savit (D) vs. Eaton County prosecutor Doug Lloyd (R).** Michigan nominates Attorney General by **party convention, not primary** — the August 4 primary did not touch this race. Savit was endorsed April 19 and formally nominated August 29; Lloyd took 63% of delegates at the March 28 Republican endorsement convention over Kevin Kijewski and was formally nominated August 22. Lloyd has no documented 2020-denial record and framed his candidacy against the recent GOP norm: "It used to be that you're actually just looking at facts and evidence." 2022 nominee [[Matt DePerno]] filed a committee in August 2025 but does not appear in the convention field. Stakes: protecting [[Gretchen Whitmer]]'s policy agenda (abortion access codified via 2022 ballot measure, gun reform), defending Michigan's independent redistricting commission maps in court, and enforcement of the state's expansive civil-rights law covering LGBTQ protections. **Nevada** — Open seat: incumbent [[Aaron Ford]] (D) is term-limited and ran for governor instead. **State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D) vs. Cannabis Compliance Board chair Adriana Guzmán Fralick (R).** Cannizzaro won the June 9, 2026 Democratic primary over State Treasurer Zach Conine roughly 61–35; Guzmán Fralick — endorsed by Governor [[Joe Lombardo]] and by [[Donald Trump]] before the primary — beat perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian roughly 60–35. Tarkanian had campaigned on investigating "all allegations of voter fraud"; no comparable record has been documented for Guzmán Fralick, a career regulator. Stakes: enforcing the state's post-Dobbs abortion protections, election certification disputes in a state Trump won narrowly, tech/gaming regulation. **Wisconsin** — [[Josh Kaul]] (D, incumbent) vs. [[Eric Toney]] (R, Fond du Lac County DA) — rematch of 2022, which Kaul won by just 1.33%. Stakes: defending Wisconsin's new legislative maps (drawn after the liberal state supreme court struck down [[Gerrymandering]] gerrymanders in 2023), abortion access (the state supreme court struck down the 1849 ban 4–3 on July 2, 2025, in a suit Kaul brought in 2022), Act 10 challenges, election-law enforcement. Wisconsin is a trifecta target for both parties. ### Tier 2 — Competitive / High-Impact **Georgia** — Open seat ([[Chris Carr]], R, ran for governor). **State Rep. Tanya Miller (D) vs. State Sen. Brian Strickland (R)** — both won outright on May 19, 2026 with no runoff needed: Miller 84.5% over former House Minority Leader Bob Trammell, Strickland 71.6% over State Sen. Bill Cowsert. Stakes: enforcement of Georgia's six-week abortion ban, voting-rights litigation (Georgia is ground zero for [[Voter Suppression]] fights), prosecution of future election-interference cases. **Iowa** — [[Brenna Bird]] (R, incumbent, won 2022 with 50.8%) **vs. Nate Willems (D)**, confirmed as the nominee out of the June 2, 2026 primary; both ran effectively unopposed. Bird dropped Iowa from multistate consumer-protection lawsuits and aligned with Republican AG coalition litigation. A competitive gubernatorial race may create down-ballot drag. Stakes: abortion enforcement (Iowa's six-week ban upheld by state courts), consumer protection, ag-industry regulation. **Florida** — [[James Uthmeier]] (R, appointed by [[Ron DeSantis]] after [[Ashley Moody]] left for the Senate) vs. former State Sen. José Javier Rodríguez (D). First time the seat is truly competitive in a decade. Stakes: enforcement of Florida's six-week abortion ban, immigration enforcement posture, insurance-crisis litigation, Disney-related regulatory disputes. **Minnesota** — [[Keith Ellison]] (D, incumbent) **vs. Ron Schutz (R)**. Ellison won the August 11, 2026 DFL primary 84.7–15.3 over Minneapolis lawyer David J.S. Madgett; Schutz was unopposed. Ellison has been a national progressive AG leader — led the [[Derek Chauvin]] prosecution, joined multistate climate and tech-antitrust litigation. Stakes: defending Minnesota's abortion-access and trans-rights protections, consumer-protection enforcement, police-reform oversight. **Kansas** — [[Kris Kobach]] (R, incumbent) facing a rematch challenger. Kobach's national profile on immigration and voting restrictions makes this a proxy fight. Stakes: abortion (Kansas voters rejected an anti-abortion amendment in 2022 — AG enforcement posture matters), immigration enforcement, LGBTQ-rights litigation. **Ohio** — Open seat (Dave Yost, R, term-limited). Stakes: enforcement of Ohio's abortion-access amendment (passed 2023), election administration oversight, opioid-settlement distribution, environmental enforcement. --- ## State Supreme Court Elections Sixty-four seats across 32 states are up in 2026. Post-[[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]], state supreme courts have become the last line of defense for abortion rights, voting rights, and fair maps. [[Dark Money]] spending on judicial races has exploded — the [[Federalist Society]] pipeline and [[Leonard Leo]]'s network funnel millions into conservative judicial campaigns, while liberal groups counter through issue-driven mobilization. ### Wisconsin (April 7 — DECIDED) Chris Taylor (liberal) defeated Maria Lazar (conservative) by ~20 points, expanding the liberal majority to **5–2**. Taylor's term runs through 2036 — past the next redistricting cycle — locking in the court that struck down Republican-drawn gerrymanders and will adjudicate abortion, voting-rights, and [[Gerrymandering]] cases for a decade. Taylor ran explicitly on abortion and anti-Trump messaging, overperforming 2024 presidential results by 21 points. Fourth consecutive liberal victory in Wisconsin high-court races. ### Georgia (May 19 — DECIDED) GOP-aligned incumbents Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren survived challenges from progressive attorneys Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan, though Bethel's margin was razor-thin (51.1–48.8%). Jordan and Rankin ran with Obama's endorsement on abortion and voting rights. The results maintain the court's conservative tilt but revealed competitive Democratic judicial infrastructure in a state trending purple. [[Brian Kemp]] appointee Ben Land ran unopposed. ### Ohio (November 3) Two seats up: incumbent [[Jennifer Brunner]] (D, former Secretary of State) seeks a second term against a Republican primary winner, and Republican Justice Dan Hawkins faces Democrat Marilyn Zayas (First District Court of Appeals). The court currently sits 6–1 Republican. Stakes: the court will rule on enforcement of Ohio's 2023 abortion-rights amendment, challenges to legislative [[Gerrymandering]], and opioid-settlement disputes. Even a single Democratic pickup would create a 5–2 court but with a functional dissent bloc on key civil-rights cases. ### North Carolina (November 3) Justice [[Anita Earls]] (D) vs. State Rep. Sarah Stevens (R). This is a retention fight for the lone remaining Democrat on what was once a 4–3 D court before the 2022 Republican wave flipped it. If Stevens wins, the court goes 7–0 R — eliminating any check on Republican redistricting, voter-ID enforcement, and abortion restrictions. Earls has been a voting-rights litigator; her loss would effectively end state-court challenges to gerrymandered maps through 2030. ### Michigan (November 3) Two seats up, both held by Democratic-aligned justices: Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh (full term) and Noah Hood (appointed by [[Gretchen Whitmer]], seeking a partial term). Democrats hold a 6–1 majority; the best-case Republican outcome would be 4–3 D. Stakes: protecting the independent redistricting commission's maps, the 2022 abortion-rights amendment, and labor/environmental regulations. ### Pennsylvania (Retention elections) Three Democratic justices face Yes/No retention votes — the linchpin of the D's 5–2 majority. Pennsylvania retention elections have historically been sleepy affairs, but after the court's 2018 decision striking down Republican congressional gerrymanders, conservative groups are considering organized No campaigns. If even one justice loses retention, the court flips. Stakes: congressional and state legislative redistricting, mail-ballot rules, [[Voting Rights Act of 1965]] enforcement in state courts. ### Other Notable Courts **Montana** — Two seats up; the court has blocked Republican-passed laws on abortion restrictions and gun regulations. Conservative groups are investing heavily. **Kansas** — Retention elections; the court that struck down the legislature's abortion ban and blocked [[Kris Kobach]]'s voter-registration restrictions faces organized opposition. **Texas** — Three seats up on the all-Republican court. Primary challenges from the right test whether corporate-friendly Republicans can survive MAGA-aligned challengers. --- ## Secretaries of State Twenty-six SoS seats on the ballot. These are the officials who certify elections, maintain voter rolls, and set election-administration rules — the frontline of the [[Election Denialism]] wars. After 2022, when voters rejected most election-denying SoS candidates, the 2026 cycle tests whether that firewall holds. ### Tier 1 — Toss-Up **Arizona** — [[Adrian Fontes]] (D, incumbent, unopposed in his primary) **vs. [[Alexander Kolodin]] (R)**, who won the July 21, 2026 Republican primary roughly 60–40 over former AZ GOP Chair Gina Swoboda. **The proxy fight between the election-denial wing and institutionalist Republicans was decided for the deniers.** Kolodin was counsel in the Trump campaign's Arizona "kraken" suit seeking to void all mail ballots, and was placed on 18-month probation by the State Bar of Arizona in December 2023 over evidence-free election-fraud claims; Swoboda, though Trump's 2020 Arizona Election Day operations director, spent this primary largely defending Arizona's election systems. Stakes: Fontes administers elections in the state that was the epicenter of [[Election Denialism]] post-2020. **Michigan** — Open seat (incumbent [[Jocelyn Benson]], D, running for governor). **Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II (D) vs. Macomb County Clerk [[Anthony Forlini]] (R).** Nominated by **convention, not primary**: Gilchrist won on the first ballot at the April 19 Democratic endorsement convention over Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum and former Lottery Commissioner Suzanna Shkreli; Forlini took 55% at the March 28 Republican convention over Amanda Love and Monica Yatooma. Forlini's record cuts both ways — he commissioned a 2022 forensic audit of Macomb's 2020 equipment that **found no fraud**, then in January 2026 referred 15 registered voters to the DOJ over noncitizenship claims, a characterization Benson's office found inflated (one was an eligible U.S. citizen). Stakes: Michigan was a top target for 2020 election challenges; the SoS oversees the expanded voting access enacted by the 2018 ballot measure. **Nevada** — [[Cisco Aguilar]] (D, incumbent, won 2022 with 48.9%) vs. [[Jim Marchant]] (R) — a **rematch of 2022**. Marchant, founder of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, won the June 9, 2026 Republican primary (called June 15) over Shirley Folkins-Roberts, who had Governor [[Joe Lombardo]]'s endorsement, and Sharron Angle. He campaigns on ending universal mail voting, scrapping electronic machines and hand-counting ballots. Stakes: Nevada's universal mail voting, election certification in a state Trump narrowly carried, voter-roll maintenance — and whether the 2022 verdict on [[Election Denialism]] holds when the same nominee returns. **Wisconsin** — This is technically a different structure (Wisconsin Elections Commission, not an elected SoS), but the 2026 elections will determine the appointing authority for commission members, making legislative control (see below) the functional equivalent. ### Tier 2 — Lean R / Competitive **Georgia** — Open seat ([[Brad Raffensperger]], R, ran for governor and lost). **Penny Brown Reynolds (D) vs. [[Tim Fleming]] (R)**, former deputy secretary of state and former Kemp chief of staff. Both parties needed the June 16, 2026 runoff: Fleming beat outright denier Vernon Jones 64.5–35.5 after leading the first round with 39.2%; Reynolds beat Dana Barrett 63.1–36.9. > [!important] The test ran, and the institutionalists lost badly > This race was billed as a direct test of [[Election Denialism]]'s hold on the Georgia GOP. **[[Gabriel Sterling]] — the Raffensperger deputy who publicly rebuked Trump's fraud claims in 2020 — finished fourth of five with about 12%.** Kelvin King finished third with roughly 16%. Around three-quarters of the Republican first-round vote went to candidates who cast doubt on 2020 or used "irregularities" framing. On the same ballot, [[Brad Raffensperger]] took 14% in the gubernatorial primary and failed to make that runoff. The two Georgia Republicans most identified with defending the 2020 count were rejected by the same primary electorate on the same day. Fleming characterizes 2020 as having had "irregularities" — language Georgia outlets describe as stopping short of endorsing Trump's fraud claims — and campaigned on voter ID and "election transparency"; he sponsored legislation to dismantle Georgia's automatic voter registration. He declined the Georgia Recorder candidate survey, so he has no on-record answer on whether 2020 was stolen. Stakes: Georgia's election infrastructure was the subject of Trump's "find 11,780 votes" call, and the next SoS will administer the 2028 presidential election in a top battleground. **Ohio** — Open seat ([[Frank LaRose]], R, term-limited). Stakes: administration of the state's abortion-rights amendment implementation, voter-roll purges, early-voting rules. **Indiana** — Open seat. Stakes: voter-ID enforcement, election-security posture. --- ## Key State Legislative Races Six Republican-held chambers and two Democratic-held chambers are rated Toss-Up, making 2026 the most competitive state-legislative cycle in years. Chamber control determines redistricting power, policy agendas, and gubernatorial-veto dynamics. The DLCC and [[Americans for Prosperity]]-affiliated RSLC are the major outside spenders. ### Toss-Up Chambers **Arizona (House and Senate)** — Both chambers narrowly R-held. Democrats need to flip 1 seat in the Senate and 3 in the House for full control. A Democratic trifecta (with a D governor) would unlock abortion-access legislation, Medicaid expansion protections, and repeal of the state's [[Voter Suppression]]-adjacent voting restrictions. Arizona's new legislative maps, drawn by the independent redistricting commission, put both chambers genuinely in play. **Michigan (House)** — Republicans flipped the House in 2024 after Democrats held it for just one term. Democrats are targeting a flip-back, which would restore the trifecta that passed gun reform, LGBTQ protections, and labor-rights legislation in 2023–24. The [[Big Beautiful Bill (2026 Issue)]] and Medicaid-cut backlash are expected to drive turnout in suburban districts. **Michigan (Senate)** — D-held but narrow. Republicans need a net gain of 2 seats. If Rs flip both chambers, they gain leverage to block [[Gretchen Whitmer]]'s agenda in her final two years. **Wisconsin (House and Senate)** — New maps drawn after the state supreme court's [[Gerrymandering]] ruling put both chambers in play for the first time in over a decade. Democrats need 5 seats in the Assembly and 1 in the Senate. A Democratic sweep + governor would create the first D trifecta in Wisconsin since 2010, enabling Medicaid expansion, abortion-access legislation, and election-reform bills. **New Hampshire (House)** — 400-member chamber, currently R-held. Democrats came within a hair of flipping it in 2022. At stake: Medicaid expansion, abortion access (15-week ban), education-voucher programs, energy policy. The state has a Republican governor and Senate, so a House flip would create divided government and block further conservative legislation. **Minnesota (Senate)** — D-held by a slim margin. If Republicans flip it, they break the Democratic trifecta that passed sweeping progressive legislation (paid family leave, gun background checks, voting-rights expansion, cannabis legalization) in 2023–24. ### Supermajority Targets Democrats are also targeting Republican supermajorities in as many as 10 states, aiming to restore gubernatorial veto power as a check. Key targets include North Carolina, Kansas, and Kentucky, where Democratic governors currently face veto-proof Republican legislatures on issues from abortion to [[Project 2025]]-aligned policy. --- ## Cross-Cutting Themes **The [[Dark Money]] pipeline**: [[Leonard Leo]]'s [[Concord Fund]] and related entities, the [[Koch Network]]'s Americans for Prosperity Action, and [[Heritage Foundation]]-aligned groups are coordinating across AG, judicial, and legislative races — funding candidates, running issue ads, and building legal infrastructure to challenge progressive state policies. The [[Federalist Society]] pipeline supplies judicial candidates. Democratic counterparts (Demand Justice, DAGA, DLCC, Planned Parenthood Action) are matching spending in key states but face structural disadvantages in non-presidential-year turnout. **Post-Dobbs enforcement map**: The interplay between AG races and state supreme court elections determines whether abortion bans on the books are actually enforced. In Wisconsin, the liberal court majority + a potential Kaul re-election would keep the 1849 ban blocked. In Ohio, the AG race + supreme court seats determine whether the 2023 voter-approved amendment is implemented faithfully. See [[Abortion Politics]], [[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]], [[Post-Dobbs Ballot Measures]]. **Election administration and 2028**: The secretaries of state elected in 2026 will administer the 2028 presidential election. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada — the states that decided 2020 and 2024 — the SoS races are effectively dress rehearsals for 2028 certification fights. See [[Election Denialism]], [[Voter Suppression]]. **[[Big Beautiful Bill (2026 Issue)]] backlash**: Medicaid cuts and hospital closures stemming from the BBB are expected to drive turnout in state-level races, particularly in rural districts where healthcare access is collapsing. This is the connective tissue between the federal midterm environment and down-ballot state races. --- ## Related - [[2026 Midterms Hub]] — parent hub - [[2026 Senate Races Hub]] · [[2026 House Races Hub]] — federal race trackers - [[Dark Money Ecosystem]] — funding architecture - [[Gerrymandering]] · [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]] — map-drawing context - [[Abortion Politics]] · [[Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization]] · [[Post-Dobbs Ballot Measures]] — reproductive-rights landscape - [[Election Denialism]] · [[Voter Suppression]] — election-integrity context - [[State Policy Network]] · [[ALEC]] — conservative state-level policy infrastructure - [[Leonard Leo]] · [[Federalist Society]] · [[Koch Network]] — funding and judicial pipelines - [[Project 2025]] — federal policy agenda with state-level implementation vectors