# 2026 House Races Hub All 435 House seats are on the ballot November 3, 2026. Majority control is the single highest-leverage outcome of the cycle. **Current House composition** (as of 2026-04-23): R 220, D 213, 2 vacant — R majority of 5 seats. **Democratic gain needed for 218 majority**: 5 seats as of April; Axios put the threshold at a net gain of **three** on Sept 25, 2026. **Cook's projection (Sept 25, 2026):** "GOP on track to lose House majority." Democrats favored in **208** seats to Republicans' **205**; most likely outcome a Democratic gain of **5–15 seats** (a 220–230 majority). ## Coverage strategy — three tiers Rather than build 435 individual race files, the KB uses a **three-tier monitoring model**: - **Tier 1 — Active dossiers**: Toss Up and Lean races. Full race files with incumbent, primary, money, ratings history, intel notes. Refreshed as ratings or money change. - **Tier 2 — Light files**: Likely R / Likely D races. Condensed files with frontmatter + ratings + minimal prose. Spun up only when something moves (rating shift, incumbent retirement, primary surprise). - **Tier 3 — Master-index entries only**: Solid R / Solid D / Safe races. Tracked in a single master index by state/district with incumbent, party, rating, PVI — no individual files. Built for completionism, not active tracking. **Current build state**: Tier 1 complete (Batches 1–5, all Toss Up / Lean seats) and **Tier 2 light files built** (2026-06-14, all 24 Likely D / Likely R seats not already in Tier 1 — see the Tier 2 section below). Master index (Tier 3, Solid/Safe) deferred pending a verified state-by-state data pipeline. ## Tier 1 race files built > [!success] All Tier 1 primaries are decided > Every race file below now carries its primary result and a final November matchup. Refreshed **2026-09-14**. The one structural exception in the country: **Louisiana's six U.S. House seats never held a primary** — after Louisiana v. Callais struck the state's map, the spring primaries were cancelled and all six districts run through Louisiana's open primary **on November 3 itself**, with a December 12 runoff if nobody clears 50%. > [!important] Cook's Sept 25, 2026 shift — 15 races toward Democrats > **Toss Up → Lean D:** AZ-01 (open), [[NJ-07-2026]]. **Lean R → Toss Up:** FL-22, [[NC-11-2026]], [[TX-15-2026]]. **Likely → Lean R:** [[CO-05-2026]], [[FL-13-2026]], [[FL-27-2026]], [[MT-01-2026]], [[TX-35-2026]], [[WI-01-2026]]. **Solid → Likely R:** NV-02, NY-21, TX-09, VA-05 (no race files yet). > The same pass re-checked every file here against Cook's Sept 25 ratings PDF and corrected drift: [[CA-13-2026]] and [[OH-01-2026]] → Lean D; [[CA-45-2026]] and [[MI-08-2026]] → Likely D; [[IA-02-2026]] and [[MI-04-2026]] → Lean R; [[CA-41-2026]], [[NH-02-2026]] and [[OR-05-2026]] → off Cook's competitive list (Solid D). **[[NC-11-2026]] was badly stale:** Chuck Edwards withdrew Aug 5 after a House Ethics censure recommendation; [[Jennifer Balkcom]] (R) now faces [[Jamie Ager]] (D). **Batch 1 — initial Toss Up dossiers (2026-04-23):** - **[[CA-13-2026]]** — [[Adam Gray]] (D, freshman) vs. R field led by [[Kevin Lincoln II]] (Trump-endorsed). Top-two primary June 2, 2026. Cook shifted Lean D → Toss Up Jan 15, 2026; **back to Lean D** in Cook's Sept 25 ratings. - **[[IA-01-2026]]** — **NOMINEES SET June 2: [[Mariannette Miller-Meeks]] (R, 71.5%) vs. [[Christina Bohannan]] (D, 80%+)**, their third straight meeting. Bohannan outraised the incumbent $2.09M to $1.49M in Q1. David Pautsch, who took 44% against Miller-Meeks in 2024, collapsed to 28.4% once Trump endorsed her. - **[[MI-07-2026]]** — [[Tom Barrett]] (R) vs. **[[William Lawrence]]** (D, Sunrise Movement co-founder; won Aug 4 primary 43.2% over [[Bridget Brink]] 29.2 / [[Matt Maasdam]] 27.6 — establishment split, organizer won). PVI EVEN. Cook Toss Up (Aug 25). - **[[PA-07-2026]]** — [[Ryan Mackenzie]] (R, freshman, 0.4-point 2024 win) vs. D field led by firefighters-union president [[Bob Brooks]] (Shapiro + Sanders endorsements). Mackenzie net -14 favorability. **Primary May 19, 2026.** **Batch 2 — expansion (2026-04-23):** - **[[NY-17-2026]]** — [[Mike Lawler]] (R, Harris-won district) vs. **[[Cait Conley]]** (D, West Point / NSC / CISA; won June 23 primary ~49% over [[Beth Davidson]] 30% despite a $1.4M GOP ad buy against her). Cook Toss Up (Aug 25). - **[[IA-03-2026]]** — [[Zach Nunn]] (R, Trump-endorsed, combat aviator) vs. State Sen. [[Sarah Trone Garriott]] (D) — who **outraised Nunn $1.69M to $1.26M in Q1**. Cook moved to Toss Up citing Trone Garriott's frontrunner status. Polymarket 71% D. Primary June 2. - **[[NV-03-2026]]** — [[Susie Lee]] (D, four-term, Trump-won district) vs. Republican field led by Halo composer [[Marty O'Donnell]] (Trump-endorsed 2026-04-14, self-funded $3M). Cook Lean D. Polymarket 78% Lee. Primary June 9. - **[[NM-02-2026]]** — [[Gabe Vasquez]] (D, Trump-won district) vs. Greg Cunningham (R, Marine veteran / retired APD detective). **Endorsement cascade 2026-04-14 to 15** — Trump + Speaker + all House leadership. Herrell NOT running (now at USDA). Primary June 2. - **[[OH-01-2026]]** — [[Greg Landsman]] (D) post-redistricting (Biden +6.5 → Trump +2.5). Faces primary challenger [[Damon Lynch IV]] (D). GOP field dominated by [[Eric Conroy]] (CIA case officer, Trump-endorsed 2026-04-15). **Primary May 5, 2026 — first competitive primary of cycle.** Cook now **Lean D** (Sept 25 ratings). - **[[AZ-06-2026]]** — [[Juan Ciscomani]] (R, Trump-endorsed 2025) vs. [[JoAnna Mendoza]] (D, USMC combat vet, DCCC Red to Blue) — who **outraised Ciscomani $2.44M to $1.2M in Q1** (2x gap). PVI EVEN. Arizona primary moved to **July 21, 2026** via HB 2022. **Batch 3 — remaining Toss Ups + Harris-won R trio (2026-04-23):** - **[[NY-19-2026]]** — [[Josh Riley]] (D, freshman, PVI D+1). Trump + [[Speaker Johnson]] endorsed [[Peter Oberacker]] (NY State Sen.) on 2026-02-04. Outsider **[[Alexander Portelli]]** (USMC vet) faces signature-fraud crisis — NYSBOE deadline 2026-04-29 could knock him off the ballot. Molinaro NOT running (briefly FTA, now NY Assembly 102 candidate). Riley $3.129M through 2025. Primary June 23. - **[[VA-02-2026]]** — [[Jen Kiggans]] (R) vs. **[[Elaine Luria]]** (D, ~80% in the Aug 4 primary) — the 2022 rematch on the **2021 map**: the VA Supreme Court voided the redistricting referendum 4–3 on May 8 and SCOTUS declined to reinstate it. April's Lean D cascade is gone; **Cook Toss Up (Aug 25)**. Primary moved June → Aug 4. - **[[WI-03-2026]]** — **REMATCH SET Aug 11: [[Derrick Van Orden]] (R, 99.0%) vs. [[Rebecca Cooke]] (D, 60.5% over Emily Berge).** Cook **Toss Up**; DDHQ rates it Lean D (flip). Van Orden ran **4 points behind Trump** in 2024 (Trump +7; Van Orden +2.8). Cooke now leads on cycle fundraising $8.6M to $7.5M — and Democratic primary turnout (93,673) ran **63% above** Republican (57,523) in an R-held seat. - **[[CA-41-2026]]** — **NOT an open seat after all.** [[Ken Calvert]] moved to CA-40 (R-on-R with [[Young Kim]]); **[[Linda Sánchez]] moved IN from CA-38** and took the top-two slot June 2 alongside Republican [[Mitch Clemmons]], leaving CA-38 open. [[Proposition 50 (California)]] shifted CA-41 from Trump +6 to Harris +12–14 — a **~20-point swing** — and the clearest lesson is that the initiative reshuffled incumbents rather than simply creating open Democratic seats. - **[[PA-01-2026]]** — [[Brian Fitzpatrick]] (R, unopposed; Trump did not endorse him) vs. **[[Robert Harvie Jr.]]** (D, Bucks County commissioner; won May 19 primary ~65%). Cook **Likely R** (Aug 25) — the only Harris-seat Republican rated better than Toss Up. **Batch 4 — Lean/Toss-Up expansion (2026-06-14):** - **[[PA-08-2026]]** — [[Rob Bresnahan]] (R, freshman) vs. Scranton Mayor [[Paige Cognetti]] (D, Red to Blue). Cook moved **Lean R → Toss Up** on a Bresnahan stock-trading controversy. Primary May 19 (both nominated); Trump endorsed Bresnahan. The seat [[Matt Cartwright]] lost by ~1.6 pts in 2024 — Democrats' top NEPA reclamation target. - **[[PA-10-2026]]** — [[Scott Perry]] (R, ex-Freedom Caucus chair) vs. [[Janelle Stelson]] (D) **rematch**; Stelson lost by ~5,100 votes in 2024 and won the May 19 primary ~69–31. Top PA congressional fundraiser ($3.17M COH); Shapiro-endorsed; DCCC poll +6. All forecasters Toss Up. - **[[NJ-07-2026]]** — [[Tom Kean Jr.]] (R) vs. Navy pilot [[Rebecca Bennett]] (D, won June 2 primary, Red to Blue). Kean's **undisclosed months-long medical absence** (no vote since early March 2026) nationalized the race; Sabato/Inside Elections shifted to **Tilt D** post-[[Mikie Sherrill]] gubernatorial win; **Cook moved Toss Up → Lean D on Sept 25.** - **[[NY-04-2026]]** — [[Laura Gillen]] (D, freshman) defends; expected rubber-match vs. [[Anthony D'Esposito]] (R), now DOL IG — **entry gated by the Hatch Act** (must resign to run). Biden +15 → Harris +1 swing, but Cook moved the House race to **Lean D** on incumbency + cash. Primary June 23. - **[[VA-07-2026]]** — [[Eugene Vindman]] (D, freshman, twin of [[Alexander Vindman]]) **renominated uncontested** after Virginia's mid-decade map was struck down by the state Supreme Court. Lean D; [[Abigail Spanberger]] reportedly carried VA-07 by ~13 pts in 2025. GOP primary Aug 4 (Durant out). War chest ~$5M. - **[[CA-40-2026]]** — **Republican-on-Republican general**: [[Ken Calvert]] (1st) vs. [[Young Kim]] (2nd) after the June 2 top-two; Democrat Esther Kim-Varet eliminated. A Prop 50 packing casualty — Cook **Solid R**, one GOP incumbent loses in November regardless. Companion to [[CA-41-2026]]. (Stub fleshed out into full dossier.) **Batch 5 — remaining Lean/Toss-Up queue, completed (2026-06-14):** - **[[MI-08-2026]]** — [[Kristen McDonald Rivet]] (D, freshman) defends a Trump-won seat from strength (unopposed primary, ~$2.6M COH). **The Aug 4 GOP primary is the oddity of the cycle: [[Thomas Smith]] won with just over 50% after suspending his campaign in mid-July and endorsing a rival**, beating Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan (~33%). Cook and Sabato both **Likely D** (Cook per Sept 25 ratings). - **[[MI-10-2026]]** — **OPEN** ([[John James]] → governor). **[[Christina Hines]]** (D, ex-Macomb prosecutor, ~47% Aug 4) vs. **[[Michael Bouchard Jr.]]** (R, Guard captain, Trump-endorsed, ~73%). **Cook Lean R → Toss Up (Aug 25).** - **[[IA-02-2026]]** — **OPEN** ([[Ashley Hinson]] → Senate). June 2 set [[Joe Mitchell]] (R, Trump + [[Mike Johnson]] endorsed) vs. [[Lindsay James]] (D, minister). Cook **Lean R** (R+4) per Sept 25 ratings. - **[[OH-13-2026]]** — [[Emilia Sykes]] (D) made **safer by the 2025 Ohio redraw** (~D+4; Canton out, Kent in); 2024 nominee Coughlin dropped out, [[Carey Coleman]] (R) won May 5. Cook Likely D. - **[[CA-45-2026]]** — [[Derek Tran]] (D, won 2024 by 613 votes) bluer after **Prop 50** (~D+8); June 2 top-two advanced Tran + [[Chuong Vo]] (R) — co-ethnic Vietnamese-American matchup. Cook **Likely D** (Sept 25 ratings). - **[[CO-08-2026]]** — [[Gabe Evans]] (R, Trump-endorsed, $3.4M COH) vs. **[[Manny Rutinel]]** (D, state rep; won June 30 primary 61–34 over Shannon Bird). Colorado's only toss-up; Cook Toss Up (Aug 25). ## Tier 1 — next to build The initial Lean/Toss-Up queue is now complete (Batches 1–5), and the **Tier 2 light-file layer is built** (below). Remaining work is the **Tier 3 (Solid/Safe master index)** layer, plus monitoring for new rating shifts and mid-decade redistricting (CA Prop 50, OH, VA, TX, FL) as they move additional seats into contention. See [[MIDTERM_OPS_PLAN]] for the broader queue. ## Tier 2 — light files (built 2026-06-14) Condensed tracking pages (frontmatter + ratings + short snapshot) for every Cook-rated **Likely Democratic** and **Likely Republican** seat not already covered in Tier 1, as of June 14. Promote any to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. > [!warning] Nine of these tripped the promotion trigger on Sept 25, 2026 > **Now Toss Up (promoted to Tier 1 on 2026-09-28):** [[NC-11-2026]], [[TX-15-2026]]. **Now Lean R (promotion pending):** [[CO-05-2026]], [[FL-13-2026]], [[FL-27-2026]], [[MI-04-2026]], [[MT-01-2026]], [[TX-35-2026]], [[WI-01-2026]]. **Now off Cook's list (Solid D):** [[NH-02-2026]], [[OR-05-2026]]. The lists below are the June 14 snapshot. **Likely Democratic (9):** [[CA-21-2026]] (Costa; Prop 50 bluer), [[IN-01-2026]] (Mrvan; Sabato→Likely D), [[MN-02-2026]] (OPEN, Craig→Senate), [[NH-01-2026]] (OPEN, Pappas→Senate), [[NH-02-2026]] (Goodlander, D+2), [[NJ-09-2026]] (Pou, D+2), [[NV-01-2026]] (Titus), [[NV-04-2026]] (Horsford), [[OR-05-2026]] (Bynum; was Toss Up). **Likely Republican (15):** [[AK-AL-2026]] (Begich, RCV), [[AZ-02-2026]] (Crane; IE "sleeper"), [[CO-05-2026]] (Crank; DCCC target), [[FL-07-2026]] (Mills), [[FL-09-2026]] (Soto's seat gerrymandered red), [[FL-13-2026]] (Luna), [[FL-27-2026]] (Salazar, R+6), [[ME-02-2026]] (OPEN, Golden retiring; LePage running), [[MI-04-2026]] (Huizenga), [[MT-01-2026]] (OPEN, Zinke retiring; Tester-won district), [[NC-11-2026]] (Edwards), [[TX-15-2026]] (De La Cruz), [[TX-23-2026]] (OPEN, Gonzales scandal), [[TX-35-2026]] (new 2025-map seat; Casar fled to TX-37), [[WI-01-2026]] (Steil). **Redistricting watch:** FL-09 (DeSantis 2025 map) and TX-35 (Abbott 2025 map) are seats that mid-decade gerrymanders converted/created as Likely R; CA Prop 50 made CA-21 bluer; OH's redraw moved OH-13 (Tier 1) toward the Democrats. ## Key national dynamics to track - **Retirements and open seats** — the 2026 retirement rate is running near-record; each retirement reshapes district math - **Redistricting** — OH and other mid-decade redraws still live in parts of the country - **Special elections** — any 2026 House specials before November serve as leading indicators - **DOGE / federal workforce impact** — federal-employment-heavy districts (Northern VA, parts of MD, Colorado Springs, Huntsville) may shift based on 2025–2026 workforce cuts - **Trump endorsements** — watch for 2026 endorsements against moderate R incumbents (Miller-Meeks already received one) - **Money reversals** — IA-01 and other seats where Democrats outraised R incumbents in Q1 — a historic pattern break ## Filename and frontmatter **Filename**: `{STATE}-{DD}-2026.md` — two-digit district numbers sort correctly (e.g., `CA-13-2026.md`, `NY-04-2026.md`). Special-election variants use the suffix `-Special` (e.g., `TX-18-2026-Special.md`). **Location**: `2026 Midterms/House/` (subfolder; flat structure, no per-state subfolders). **Frontmatter**: standard `type: race` schema with `chamber: House`, `state_abbrev`, `district` (integer), `tier` (1/2/3), `rating_cook`, `cook_pvi_2025`, and `dccc_program` / `nrcc_program` where applicable. ## Related - [[index]] - [[2026 Senate Races Hub]] - [[MIDTERM_OPS_PLAN]] — operational plan